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GroupM: US pay-TV penetration to fall below 50% by 2025

NEW YORK — Major media buying firm GroupM predicts that all US pay-TV providers will reach fewer than half of all US homes by 2025.

The forecast is part of the company’s annual advertising forecast, which also predicts that connected TV advertising will account for nearly a third of all US TV advertising by 2027.

GroupM forecast projects global ad growth of 6.5% in 2023 excluding political ads in the US, with traditional TV ads up 0.9% globally to 134.6 billion ads up 1.5% globally to 157, $8 billion.

The forecast noted that “the US economy has shown itself to be fairly resilient” and has not slipped into recession. “Currently, we expect connected TVs to grow at double-digit rates over the next four years, accounting for nearly a third of all TV ad revenue by 2027,” the report reads.

Explaining its forecast that pay-TV penetration will fall below 50% by 2025, GroupM noted that “In the United States, in the final months of 2022, streaming providers claimed virtually every top-watched television program except for Live sports still dominated by linear networks and cable channels. But as Apple, Amazon, and other non-traditional players enter the sports rights market, even that last passion of linear viewers isn’t guaranteed. Sports Along certainly wasn’t enough to stem the loss of video customers from cable and satellite providers.”

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