History says there are only 12 players left alive for an MPO World Championship
how far back can you be
September 1, 2022 from Darren LeMay in analysis with comments
In the last six MPO World Championships, the eventual winner has always been within three strokes of the lead after the second round. All six winners were on the leader card by round three.
If you stretch it to the final 10 winners, after round two the eventual winner has come back from more than three strokes down just twice. In 2014, Paul McBeth was in 8th place and five strokes off the lead after round two, and in 2012 McBeth won his first world title after falling six strokes off the leader.
Aaron Gossage and Tristan Tanner currently share the 20-under lead. Only five players sit within three shots. Last year, nine players finished the second round three shots behind the lead.
With most of the remaining 54 holes located at Emporia Country Club, where we’ve already seen nine players shoot double digits under par, the old adage – “there’s a lot of golf left” – is obviously true, and there always is another lot of . However, history is on the side of these five gentlemen:
- Tristan Gerber (-20)
- Aaron Gossage (-20)
- Calvin Heimburg (-18)
- Paul McBeth (-18)
- Garrett Gurthie (-17)
THAT’S IT! That’s the entire list of possible winners, if the event’s recent history is correct. Of that list, only Paul McBeth has ever won a major, let alone his five world titles.
But if we go with history for the past eight years and say everyone is still alive within five shots, which feels plausible on these courses, the current top 12 is still alive.
The additional 7 players that fall under those extra two shots are:
- Eagle McMahon-16
- Ezra Aderhold -16
- Chris Clemons-16
- Gavin Babcock-16
- Ricky Wysocki-16
- Anthony Barela -15
- Ben Callaway-15
Different worlds facts
- Only four of the last 11 champions actually led after round two (Doss 2011, McBeth 2013, Wysocki 2016 & 2017)
- Nine of the last ten champions started round three on the lead map.
- In 2016 (also at Emporia), Ricky Wysocki shot consecutive hot rounds in each of the first two rounds. The only player to have done that in the last 20 years. In round three he did it again! Ricky led after every round this year.
Who is outside?
The following six players are already out of the running due to historical placements. They were all among the favorites ahead of this week’s tournament.
39th place (10 strokes back)
• Chris Dickerson (1044)
• Isaac Robinson (1033)
50th place (11 strokes back)
• James Conrad (1035)
•Kevin Jones (1034)
62nd place (12 strokes back)
•Adam Hammes (1033)
68th place (13 strokes back)
• Simon Lizotte (1034)
FEATURED: Ben Callaway, Gavin Babcock, Tristan Tanner
PLAYER: Aaron Gosage, Anton Barela, Calvin Heimburg, Chris Clemons, Eagle McMahon, Ezra Aderhold, Garret Gurthie, Paul McBeth, Rick Wysocki
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